Mortgage Loan Applications Flat for September

The data is in for new home sales in September, and it’s looking a little flat. Based on the number of mortgage loan applications filed for the purposes of buying a new home, it would seem that buying activity was essentially unchanged from August. This information is coming to us from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Builder Application Survey, released on the ninth.

The data shows that new single-family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 425,000 last month, representing an 0.2 percent increase over the estimate of 424,000 made in August. Conversely, the unadjusted data shows us a total of about 32,000 homes sold in September, representing a 5.9 percent shortfall of the 34,000 new homes that were sold in August. The MBA’s chief economist said of this, “Earlier this summer, and again last month, the first estimates from Census were significantly higher than the estimates implied from the applications data. However, the revised data from Census resulted in a much closer match to MBA’s estimates, and we anticipate that will be the case going forward, given the high rate of coverage in our survey.”

Of the mortgage loan applications submitted in September, 67.6 percent were conventional loans, 16.7 percent were FHA loans, 14.5 percent were VA loans, and 1.2 percent were USDA Rural Housing Service loans. The size of the average loan dropped from August’s $300,443 to $298,274.

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March Starts with a Jump in Mortgage Rates

The big news as we start the month comes from pharmaceutical giant Actavis, which announced back in November that it would buy Allergan for $66 billion. In order to raise the money for this purchase, the company issued a bond deal for something in the area of $27 billion. This is the second biggest corporate bond deal ever made, beaten only by Verizon’s $47 billion deal.

This is a lot of debt to hit the market at once. To give it some perspective, consider that the last deals to have made significant waves amounted to only about $11 billion and $6 billion. Since these corporate bonds have an indirect link to the bonds that dictate mortgage rates, all of this debt is bad news for the housing market.

Unfortunately, with big-ticket events on the horizon, we likely cannot expect the market to correct itself anytime soon.

Lawsuit to Challenge Status of Real Estate Agents

A case going forward in Los Angeles County Supreme Court may have widespread consequences for real estate agents throughout the country. This case, dubbed Bararsani v. Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Company, challenges that the accused brokerage company falsely classified its real estate agents as independent contractors when they were actually acting as employees. In doing so, the company failed to reimburse their contractors for their business-related expenses.

It’s common practice in the United States for brokerage companies to maintain their real estate agents as independent contractors instead of employees. The companies find this to be beneficial, as keeping their total employees under a certain number saves them from significant paperwork and expenses. Many of the agents themselves also find it to be an agreeable situation, as their contractor status allows them to be their own bosses and not have taxes withheld from their paychecks.

Though federal law allows for real estate agents to act as contractors, these laws may have to be re-analyzed depending on the outcome of this trial.

Home Price Increases Slow in May

For a long while now, our mortgage loan company has been observing great jumps in home asking prices. This was due in a large part to the torrential release of demand, pent up from years of recession, which overwhelmed the supply of homes on the market and put strains on the construction industry. Finally, however, it would seem that the market is beginning to correct itself and restoring some measure of stability for consumers.

According to the Trulia Price Monitor, asking prices in May showed a distinct slowing trend. With a year-over-year increase of only 8.0%, prices increased at their lowest rate in the past thirteen months. May’s rate is still well above the long-term historical norm, but it tells of a market that is more balanced and sustainable.

Though prices are slowing down across the country, the biggest slowdowns have been occurring in the Western United States. In the previous year, it was the West that saw the greatest increases in home prices. Today, of the top ten markets with the biggest price gains, over half were outside the West. All in all, this is good news for consumers who are looking for a little more stability in the housing market.

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Real Estate Tips for Planning for Retirement

Planning for your retirement is all about investing, and, if you’re like most people, your biggest investments are in real estate. Your golden years should be marked by a fully paid-off mortgage loan on your primary residence, and possibly a few additional properties to generate income. Unfortunately, many people make some fairly costly mistakes when planning their real estate nest eggs. Here are a few of the bigger pitfalls you should avoid:

  • Think Twice Before Buying Multiple Homes: Some people like to purchase a second property with the idea that they are going to retire to it at some future point. They are frequently motivated by the economy, reasoning that they can save money by buying at today’s prices. All too often, though, these savings dry up quickly in the form of property taxes and maintenance costs.
  • Don’t Wait Too Long to Downsize: Maybe you started out with a large home to bring up your family, and then planned to sell it for a smaller home later on. This is a good way to cash in some equity. Don’t wait longer than you need to, though; the longer you stay in the larger property, the more you’re losing in increased property taxes, increased maintenance bills, and costlier utilities.
  • Invest Your Downsizing Money Wisely: It’s easy to fall into the trap of taking the money you make off of relocating to a smaller home and thinking of it as “found money”. When you do this, you are parted from this money quickly. Instead, consider living off of these funds so that you can leave your retirement accounts untouched for a little while longer.
  • Try to Avoid Taking Out a New Mortgage: If you retire at 55, you could very well be paying off your house when you’re 85.

Home Affordability Remains Strong Despite Price Rises

Black Knight Financial Service took a look back on January’s home affordability and foreclosure metrics, and made some interesting discoveries. It would appear that foreclosure starts reached a twelve month high at the start of 2015, both in terms of first time foreclosures and repeats. As of then, repeat foreclosures accounted for better than half of the total foreclosures.

Meanwhile, home affordability, despite two years of rising prices, remains better than what we saw prior to the housing bubble. The low interest rates at the time served well to offset price increases so that the mortgage-to-income ratio average throughout the United States was at 21%. This is an improvement over the 26% average observed from 2000-2002, but it’s still up from the 17.6% low in October of 2012.

Here in Washington state, we are slightly above the average at 21.3%. However, this represents an improvement of 6.5% from 2000-2002, exhibiting a greater-than-average increase of mortgage affordability.

The Rise of Ginnie Mae

Though most people know the names Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, fewer are familiar with the group known as Ginnie Mae. This is because Ginnie Mae, or the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) has for a long time taken a distant third place within the world of single-family mortgage loan securitization platforms. However, in the wake of the financial crisis, it’s been Ginnie Mae that has been largely boosting the recovery of the market, and now this group is poised to overcome Freddie Mac.

Back in 2007, Ginnie Mae’s book of business came in at $445 billion, far behind the approximately 1.5 trillion of Freddie Mac and the 2 trillion of Fannie Mae. Today, Ginnie Mae’s business has more than tripled, bringing it up to 1.5 trillion. At its continuing rate of growth, compared to the plateaued performance of Freddie Mac, it is projected to overtake the mortgage giant within the next year.

So, what is the secret of Ginnie’s success? What sets it apart from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is that it offers less of a risk for investors. Ginnie Mae securities feature only government loans, which are reliably insured with an explicit government backing. It is then able to guarantee investors that principal and interest payments will be made in a timely fashion, even if the borrower defaults. The company effectively puts itself into a fourth loss position, behind a borrower, a government insurance provider, and a servicer. By contrast, the other mortgage giants act as both insurers and securitizers, putting themselves in a second loss position that represents a greater risk.

In the time of uncertainty that followed the financial crisis, Ginnie Mae’s credit guarantee proved to be a powerful stabilizer for the mortgage market. As it rides the wave of its recent success, we can likely expect it to play a much bigger role in real estate from now on.

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Underwater Mortgages a New Low

The financial crisis saw many unfortunate homeowners go underwater with their mortgage loans. With the economy improving, though, and the Fed working to save these imperiled homes, negative equity is dropping across the country. According to RealtyTrac, as of the third quarter of 2014, the percentage of American homes with underwater mortgage loans dropped to fifteen percent.

These new figures represent the lowest result RealtyTrac has reported since it began tracking underwater mortgages in the beginning of 2012. At this time, underwater home loans in America were dancing dangerously close to the thirty percent range. The number peaked in the second quarter of 2012 with twenty-nine percent. Meanwhile, equity-rich homes are slowly rising as well, representing roughly twenty percent of all home loans. We can therefore see that significant progress has been made.

Unfortunately, we still have some way to go. Negative equity in this country still exceeds one trillion dollars. Further, RealtyTrac says that an additional sixteen percent of mortgages are in danger of falling underwater. The real estate market therefore looks to the future for further recovery.

June Sees Rise in Home Sales, Drop in Mortgages

Last month, mortgage lenders experienced a decline in applications for new home purchase mortgages. According to a survey conducted among mortgage subsidiaries of US builders by the the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications in June were down five percent from May. This represents the second month in a row of drops in mortgage activity, with an estimated eight percent decline between April and May.

Conventional loans in June represented the bulk of loan applications, with a total of 67.2% of the market. FHA made up 17%, VA loans made up 14.6%, and 1.2% represented loans from the Rural Housing Service and USDA. Among new home loans, the average loan size was $296,078, representing a slight decline from May’s average of $296,427.

Despite this drop in mortgage activity, it is estimated that new home sales rose in June. Based on their survey data and assumptions regarding the market coverage, MBA places June home sales at 386,000 units. This represents a 3.2% increase over the 374,000 units purchased in May.

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Baby Boomers Ignoring Common Mortgage Wisdom

The importance of planning for your retirement in your real estate investments has been discussed at length in the past. As you grow old, it’s often a good idea to downsize to a smaller home in order to eliminate any remaining mortgage loans for the rest of your golden years. However, according to a survey from the Demand Institute, a surprising number of Baby Boomers are going against conventional wisdom.

The survey found that many retired people are content to stay put in the homes they spent their lives in, even if they are too big or ill equipped to fit their needs. A full sixty-three percent of Baby Boomers have no plans to move from their homes, most of them having lived in their current homes for more than the past ten years. Though some of these people need to stay in place due to financial hardship or other situations out of their control, eighty-five percent are choosing to remain where they are.

Meanwhile, of the Boomers who do plan to move, many are declining to downsize. About fifty-eight percent of the Boomer population surveyed said that they want to have at least as much home as they currently have, if not more. A full forty-six percent of people apparently intend to upsize their homes into something better when they move.

Unfortunately, this is all adding up to an increase in debt. Baby Boomers are more burdened by debt than previous generations at the same stage of life. Since 1992, the balance of their mortgage loans has risen 142%. Boomers are therefore advised to carefully consider their finances going into retirement, and just how much they need out of a home in their golden years.


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