February Off to a Volatile Start

As February kicked off, mortgage rates moved upwards more quickly than they have so far in 2015. However, rates are remaining among the best seen in the past twenty-one months. The upfront costs associated with them may be higher.

This volatile activity can be attributed to the broader global financial market. A big part of this comes in the form of tension in the Greek market. The ECB is cutting Greece off, effective 2/11, due to the uncertainty surrounding the country’s austerity program. It now falls upon Greece to decide whether to exit the Eurozone or make serious changes. Depending on what Greek officials decide upon, we could see some dramatic moves in terms of bonds, stocks, and mortgage rates in the coming weeks.

Many Americans Still Leery About Housing Market

Despite many months of positive trends, including rising home prices, declining mortgage loan delinquency, and increased home sales, a surprising number of Americans are still not convinced that the housing crisis is over. This is according to a survey conducted by the MacArthur Foundation.

This survey, conducted between April 8th and April 14th of this year, polled a nationally representative sample of 1,355 Americans. Of the surveyed population, a full 70% stated that they believed that the nation was still in the middle of a housing crisis, including a 19% who exhibited a belief that the worst was yet to come. This represents a slight improvement over the previous year, when 77% of respondents believed we were still in a housing crisis. Approximately one in four people said that they believed the crisis was over, representing an improvement from the one in five from 2013.

It would appear that this same attitude is serving to discourage many non-owners from buying their first home. While the survey demonstrated that 70% of non-owners still aspire to one day own their own home, two thirds of respondents do not believe that building equity and wealth through homeownership is still a viable option. With that in mind, 51% of respondents said that renting is more appealing that it was in past decades, while 54% said that buying a home was less appealing than it used to be.

Source

Second Annual Ginnie Mae Summit Outlines Position of Mortgage Giant

This Monday, Ginnie Mae kicked off their second annual Ginnie Mae Summit in Washington wherein the mortgage giant shall be describing its position vis a vis the current issues within the mortgage world. With the housing industry in a state of change, the company shall be exploring how mortgage loans and the position of lenders shall be transformed as we emerge fully from the financial crisis.

In a keynote speech from Julian Castro, the new Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, the housing industry was called upon to create a stronger market to serve the American people. “We need to work together to see a robust, healthy housing market, where those who are ready can buy a home,” said Castro. “Our nation is making progress across the board, and HUD is focused on ensuring these opportunities reach every American.”

To this end, Ginnie Mae has announced the following:

The company’s net worth and liquidity requirements are undergoing final changes, to be announced at the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention next month.
The company’s acknowledgement agreement is being changed to achieve a balance in the needs of mortgage lenders and Ginnie Mae’s risk management. The company hopes that this will expand liquidity.
The company has decided upon a Dormant Issuer Policy, which would require issuers to be more active. The purpose of this policy is to allow Ginnie Mae to make more efficient use of the resources that go into monitoring the activities of issuers.
In conjunction with the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, Ginnie Mae is initiating a program which would give small financial institutions greater access to the secondary market. Ginnie Mae will thereby be guaranteeing securities issued by FHLBC, beginning in November of this year.

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Strong Employment Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher

Joblessness proved to be somewhat higher than expected last week, with the number of new claims for unemployment benefits taking a small upturn. In total, initial claims for state benefits rose by about 25,000 in the week ended February 7th, according to the Labor Department.

However, the underlying trends continue to be indicative of rising strength in the labor market. Over the past three months, over a million jobs have been created, an achievement that hasn’t been reached since 1997. The four-week moving average of unemployment claims actually fell by 3,250 last week, and this statistic is largely considered a better measure of trends in the labor market.

What this adds up to is a strong jobs report, which lends itself to a rise in mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up. This is still considerably lower than what was observed a year ago.

Don’t Convert Your Garage!

Many people, particularly people with older homes, like to look for ways to increase their livable space. This seems to them like a good way to build upon their home loan investment; after all, it’s generally the living space that you’re paying for in a home. However, the common strategy of converting the garage into a bedroom is not generally a good idea.

The first thing to remember is that your garage is not as easy to turn into a bedroom as you may think. Some people want to assume that, since it already has a roof over it, it’s an easy enough operation to lay down some carpeting and put up a new wall where the garage door used to be. However, garages lack the insulation of the rest of your home, so temperatures and noise dampening will be a problem. Meanwhile, anything short of a complete re-do is going to leave you with a room that clearly used to be a garage.

When it comes time to sell this home, you’re probably not going to benefit from this extra bedroom. Potential buyers are likely to use it as leverage for a lower price, or at very least demand that it not count as part of the livable space they are paying for. Not only is a converted garage an unattractive prospect for many buyers, a lot of buyers will be looking for the security and storage space that goes with a garage. Save yourself the time and money, and leave your garage the way it is.

Job Creation Index Hits a New High

One of the most important factors in the health of the real estate market is the job market. After all, people can only achieve their dreams of homeownership when they are reliably and gainfully employed. Therefore, as a mortgage loan company, we are heartened to see the recent trends in employment.

According to Gallup’s US Job Creation Index, job creation is at an all-time high since the index began in 2008. In May of 2014, the index came in at +27, beating out the prior high of +26 from all the way back in January of 2008 when the country was just starting to fall into recession.

This number is based on a survey of the American workforce, where the percentage of people who reported that their workplace was reducing the size of its workforce is subtracted from the number of people who reported that their workplace was expanding the size of its workforce. In May, it was found that 40% of employees reported that their company was hiring new workers, while only 13% were experiencing a staff reduction. Another 41% reported no change in staffing.

This new high was strongest in the private sector, with an index of +29 for non-government jobs and only +14 for government jobs. However, both sectors appear to be showing improvement, with the government sector only two points shy of its previous high in 2008. All in all, it’s a very positive outlook for the recovering economy.

Source

Foreclosure Inventory Expected to Drop Below Half-Million by 2015

The financial crisis was marked by a surplus of foreclosure properties. This serves to drag down home prices and mortgage rates as lenders and sellers desperately compete with a flooded marketplace. However, the past year has shown a distinct improvement: the last twelve months has given us the lowest level of foreclosures since November of 2007.

As of last August, there were 629,000 foreclosure properties on the market, representing a drop of 2.6 percent from July and 32.8 percent from August of last year. This makes August the 34th consecutive month that the number of homes in some state of foreclosure has dropped. If this trend continues, it is entirely possible that the national inventory of foreclosure properties could fall below 500,000 before the end of the year.

Twenty-seven states enjoyed a foreclosure rate of one percent or less as of August. Unfortunately, the market here in Washington has not yet reached this point. With a foreclosure rate of 1.5 percent, Washington sit roughly in the mid range for the nation. We therefore look forward to greater improvement going into 2015.

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February of 2015 is a Bad Month for Mortgage Rates

Following the recent jobs report, and with the turmoil in Europe showing no signs of subsiding, February has quickly turned into a bad month for mortgage rates. As of the 17th, rates have risen at the fastest day-over-day pace since November 8th of 2013, making this the worst month for mortgage rates since May of 2013.

It’s hard to say what we might look forward to as the month comes to a close. Rates could just as easily turn around as they could get a lot worse. Much of this rides on whether or not Europe turns a corner. Many people anticipate that Europe will continue to slide until the central bank engages in a US-style quantitative easing, which some are expecting to happen sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, every increase in rates here brings on the risk of a long-term rise, so floating is not generally a good option for people without long term time horizons.

Could Bitcoin Become a Real Estate Standard?

Earlier this year, a mortgage broker company in Manhattan became the first company of its kind to accept bitcoins as payment. Bitcoins, representing a form of digital currency, have been making a splash in recent years as they have legitimized themselves from being worth pennies apiece to being worth upwards of six hundred dollars. Some people are optimistic that this new monetary form will have a lot of potential in the modern real estate market, but its future as a viable currency remains uncertain.

In truth, the bitcoin market is highly unstable. Investors are turned off by how easy the coins are to lose. Also, over-ambitious bitcoin “miners” could crash the entire system single-handedly. It’s a currency plagued with uncertainty, and the real estate market does not like uncertainty.

The real estate world learned a harsh lesson about the bitcoin when a couple of big players in the bitcoin market restricted the ability of bitcoin users to withdraw their digital currency. This led to a sharp decline in bitcoins, which lost investors 20% of their bitcoin value. Clearly, while digital currency may someday become a valuable part of the real estate world, the system may require more regulation before any more mortgage companies care to take a chance on it.

4 Questions to Ask Before Buying

A lot of renters are eager to buy their first homes, but don’t want to make the same mistakes that so many first-time buyers made prior to the housing crisis. Indeed, deciding whether or not you could benefit from trading in your monthly rent for mortgage loan payments is a difficult decision to make. This is why the American Bankers Association (ABA) has come up with the following questions that every consumer should ask themselves when determining whether they should be renting or buying:

  • How Much Do You Have in Savings? Ideally, you should have between three and six months of living expenses stored away for an emergency. Calculate what your emergency funds should be, and then calculate what you can afford in the way of a down payment on a home or a deposit on a rental property.
  • How Much Will You Pay Every Month? Add together all of your financial obligations and calculate your monthly payments, then make a hypothetical budget for the home you wish to rent or buy. What do utilities cost in the area? Do you have to pay for trash pickup? What about renter’s insurance? You’re going to want to make sure that you can reasonably take on your monthly rent or mortgage loan payments.
  • What is Your Credit Score? Whether you’re renting or buying, you’re probably going to have someone look at your credit score. The lower this score is, the less eligible you will be for desirable homes or rental properties. If you have a low score, you may want to put off your move in favor of bringing your score up a few points.
  • How Long Do You Plan to Stay in the Home? Buying is generally only a good decision if you plan to live in the same place for an extended period of time. This allows you to build equity and avoid the extra grief and expenses that come with selling your home. If you think you may wish to move in the near future, you may prefer the flexibility and lower maintenance costs of renting.

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