Delinquent Mortgages Down, Prepayment Up

The good news about the past year’s real estate market continues to come in. According to Black Knight Financial Services, the past twelve months brought us a substantial improvement in mortgage performance. It would appear that there was a 22% decrease in foreclosure inventory nationwide, and a 15% decrease in the number of delinquent mortgages.

The number of mortgage loans that were at least thirty days past due, but not in foreclosure proceedings. At the end of the year, there was a total of 2.41 million delinquent mortgages, representing a drop of about 425,000 from the end of 2014. Meanwhile, there was a total of 689,000 properties in the middle of foreclosure proceedings at the end of the year, representing a drop of about 9,000 from November and 192,000 from the end of 2014.

Black Knight also tells us that the rate of prepayment is also on the rise. In December, this metric was higher than it was in the end of 2014.

October Opens with Lowest Rates Since Spring

October opened with some wild activity in the mortgage market. With the introduction of European quantitative easing, investors have been moving money to take advantage of European rates, and domestic rates have been feeling the benefits. On Friday, the average conventional thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgage quote plummeted. Almost all lenders opened the day offering the lowest levels we have seen in over five months. Unfortunately, the afternoon saw a substantial reversal in the bond markets that most affect mortgage rates, increasing the chance of rates shooting upward again.

One of the big factors at play currently is the recent September jobs report, which came in slightly weaker than was expected. This weak activity promises to call a Fed rate hike into question, and deter any general economic growth. It is difficult for long-term rates to go up significantly without a positive growth outlook.

In the near-term, we can still expect some volatility in mortgage rates. Anybody not prepared to deal with this volatility would be well-advised to lock into the current five-month lows.

Home Affordability is Up, but On its Way Down

Black Knight Financial Services took a close look at trends in home affordability and the recent surge in cash-out refinances, as it applies up through the end of December. According to the data they gathered, there have now been a total of forty-three consecutive months of annual appreciation in home prices. Further, through the use of national medians of home prices and household incomes, they found that the ratios of mortgage payment-to-income remain favorable, according to historic standards.

When the group looked at the median principal and interest payments for October of the last fifteen years, they observed that such payments consumed fully 26% of a median household’s income in 2000, rising to a peak of 33% in 2006, and then falling all the way down to 18% in 2012. In October of 2015, this figure was at 21%, below the median of 26% for the past fifteen years and within the realm of reasonable affordability.

Unfortunately, the trend seems to be upward. The group is projecting that median principal and interest payments will reach 24% of median income in 2016, and surpass the median in 2017

Market Stabilizes at October’s Highest Rates

Friday closed with the highest mortgage rates for the month so far. Fortunately, these rates still represent an improvement over most of September. These rates remained steady through Monday, as is normal for a three-day weekend. What to expect as we move forward, though, remains very much in question.

The stocks and bonds markets are both at a significant crossroads, both with the potential to either move back into the range seen in June and July or continue a long trend of downward-moving yields and stock prices. There may be some risk for rates to quickly move higher, if we can take the Fed at their word and ignore the weak trends in global economic growth. The Fed seems convinced that the economy will allow for a rate hike by the end of 2015, but many critics are saying otherwise.

All things considered, it may be too optimistic to expect rates to dip any lower than they currently are; anyone looking to float should expect to play the long-term game, and be prepared to pay more if you turn out to be wrong.

Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest in Twelve Months

This week opened with a sharp drop in mortgage rates. Most lenders have been offering their lowest quotes in almost a year. While many others have been sticking with Friday’s rates, they have been pairing these with lower closing costs.

Generally, you can’t expect rates to move this dramatically more than twenty times throughout a single year. In this case, the drop can be attributed to MBS, or “mortgage-backed securities”, representing the bonds that are most closely related to mortgage rates. When trading is calm, such bonds behave like you might expect from the interest rate world, but when the rest of the interest rate world is rapidly moving lower, they have a tendency to underperform. Therefore, when ten-year treasuries were down 10bps on Monday, lenders adjusted their mortgage rates accordingly.

Should market trading levels hold their ground, mortgage rates could very well drop even further. Of course, the risk of a significant bounce offset the possible benefits of floating. Locking into the current lows is the best choice for most people.

Market Stability Continues on Five-Month Lows

The mortgage market has been characteristic of surprisingly little activity as of late. In the latter half of last week, rates lingered enjoyed an uncommon level of stability, with Thursday and Friday proving to be particularly uneventful. As we go into a new week, though, this trend has shown no sign of reversing; indeed, Monday has been, if anything, even less volatile than the previous week.

At the beginning of Monday, rates were right in the sweet spot to best ensure that there would be no change. Bond markets, which are closely linked to activity in mortgage rates, exhibited very little activity. By the end of the day, there was nothing strong or weak enough to inspire mortgage lenders to update their rate sheets.

At present, quotes for conventional thirty-year, fixed rate mortgages are remaining in line with five-month lows. Meanwhile, there is very little to indicate how the market can be expected to move in the near future. With this in mind, most buyers may be wise to lock into current rates.

Mortgage Rates Jump Going Into Long Weekend

Mortgage rates jumped rapidly on Friday, with losses among the worst so far in the year. However, as young as the year is, the outright levels are only the fourth lowest in the past twelve months.

It’s no mystery why we’re experiencing such a dramatic upturn. After all, with the prodigious moves toward lower rates we have experienced in the past months, it’s only natural that we should experience a bounce-back. The question that is on many investors’ minds right now is whether this represents the start of a long-term trend, or if this is simply the product of the caution that is so often practiced heading into a three-day weekend, combined with the activity of stock and oil traders covering short positions.

If you failed to lock into rates before this reversal, don’t worry too much. It is entirely possible that rates will recover to their 2016 lows in the near future. However, considering the relative overall strength of mortgage rates, it’s not the worst thing in the world to lock in.

More Cities Achieve Housing Stability

According to Freddie Mac, about half of the country’s large metropolitan areas have returned to a historic stable range. This is according to their Multi-Indicator Market Index, or MiMi. Using proprietary data along with local market data, including home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios, proportions of on-time mortgage payments, and local employment rates, MiMi rates cities based on their own individual stable ranges.

At present, a full forty-seven of the United States’ one hundred biggest metros fall within the stable range. Cities throughout the west coast have been particularly strong, with Seattle, Portland, and all of California’s big cities ranking as “in range”. Washington State itself is among the most improved states, with an improvement of 10.41%.

The national MiMi value currently stands at 81.2. Such a number is indicative of an overall housing market that is on the outer range of stable. This represents an improvement of 37% over the all-time low experienced in October of 2010. However, it still has a way to go to reach the high of 121.7.

Foreclosures Up for Much of the Nation

Looking back at January, we can see that the rate of foreclosures was down on a month-over-month basis. Unfortunately, completed foreclosures showed a significant upturn on an annual basis.

According to RealtyTrac, there was a total of 95,186 filings in January. This includes foreclosure starts, notices of default, and completed foreclosures. This number represents the lowest figure since July of 2006, as well as an 8% decrease from December and an 11% decrease from January of 2015. Further, completed foreclosures alone were down by 26% from December, but up 32% from January of 2015.

Some states showed worse figures than the national average. Twelve states and the District of Columbia experienced an increase in foreclosure starts, with Oklahoma leading the nation with a whopping 289% increase. Meanwhile, completed foreclosures were up in 34 states and the District of Columbia; New York saw the worst increase with 263%, followed by Texas, New Jersey, Georgia, and Maryland.

November Opens With Increased Volatility

Last week, October ended with one-month highs in mortgage rates. As we go into November, rates are inching up even further. Much of this activity can be attributed to the recent Fed Announcement, which promised to tighten policy. This serves to push up US Treasuries, which influences the mortgage-backed securities that directly influence mortgage rates.

The good news is that, as this represents the market correcting itself in anticipation of the Fed’s policy rate hike, we can likely expect it not to be affected any further by the time the hike goes into effect. In the meantime, though, the market will be under all the more pressure. The more it looks like the planned hike will happen in December, the more we can expect rates to move upward. This week in particular has a high potential for volatility, with the upcoming jobs report on Friday morning marking the time of highest risk. Unless you can afford to take risks, you would be well-advised to lock into current rates by Thursday.


Keeping U. Avatar
David and Jan are amazing! They did such a great job and kept us in the loop the whole time. They are rock stars! Thank you!
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K. U. 11/17/2025
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F. C. 11/11/2025
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If I could give David 10 stars, I would. He was there for us with any questions we had and was very transparent with everything he did. He went above and beyond at every turn and he got us to closing in record time, especially since we switched lenders halfway through the process due to issues with Zillow. We feel so lucky to have found David and he helped make our dream a reality.
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David and his team have provided, by far, the best mortgage experiences of our lives. Their patient explanations and thorough understanding of our situation instill confidence in our decisions every time.
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I had a great first experience working with this mortgage lender. The whole team was friendly and easy to work with while still keeping everything professional. My loan officer was very knowledgeable and always quick to answer any questions I had. The process went smoothly from start to finish. I’d highly recommend them to anyone looking for a reliable and professional lender!
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David and his amazing team made my home buying experience something that wasn’t overwhelming but enjoyable and easy.He was there every step of the way, answering any and all questions from early in the morning till late at night. If you call, he answers. I would recommend David and his team to any and all looking to purchase a home, he will go above and beyond for you. Thank you David, Jan and L.J.
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