Fannie Mae’s economists have come out with their economic and strategic summary for May. The bad news is that their outlook for the economic growth in 2015 is weakening. Despite this, their assessment of the housing market is getting stronger.
Their reduced expectations for the economy are based on the disappointing growth of the GDP in the first quarter, which came in at only 0.2%. With this in mind, their expectations for the year dropped by 0.5% to a total of 2.3%.
As far as housing goes, Chief Economist Doug Duncan is calling the market “mixed”. In March, existing home sales reached their highest level in two years. Meanwhile, pending home sales and mortgage loan applications were both strong, and foreclosure rates have been improving. However, the first quarter represented a decline from the numbers seen in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The October National Housing Survey is in, and the outlook is good. Overall, it would seem that we are seeing a continuation in the trends that have been marking an improving economy throughout the past months. Between improving mortgage conditions and personal economic situations, it would seem that it is finally a good time to sell.
The percentage of survey respondents who expected home prices to go up in the coming year dropped to forty-four, down one point from the previous month. The percent who expect home prices to go up also dropped one point to seven percent. It would seem that we can probably expect prices to remain more or less the same for a while.
As far as mortgage rate projections go, respondents who expect them to go up jumped from forty-five percent to forty-eight percent, while those who expect them to stay the same dropped from forty-five to thirty-eight.
A big factor that’s going to be tipping the market in favor of sellers is going to be the improving economic situation for potential buyers. An increasing number of people expect their personal financial situations to improve over the coming year, which means more people looking to move up. This all adds up to favorable conditions for home sellers.
Going forward Mortgage Insurance will no longer be able to be a line item deduction after 12/31/2011. As a Mortgage Insurance Company has reminded us: United Guaranty MI company. “MI tax deductibility is scheduled to lapse at midnight, December 31, 2011, now’s the time to expedite them to retain this benefit for your borrowers who qualify! MI tax deductibility will also lapse for FHA and VA loans, which were extended under the same law as private MI.”
As we found out last week, g-fees for new agency loans will be going up to pay for the two-month payroll tax cut.Under the “unintended consequences” banner analysts were quick to point out that, given the increase is scheduled for ten years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not going away any time soon unless the government comes up with the money elsewhere. F&F will not absorb this increase, nor will lenders; it will, of course, be passed on to borrowers. (The bill also will raise the annual insurance premium borrowers pay on FHA loans by one-tenth of a percent.) The increased g-fee, which makes it difficult for Congress to work on efforts to shut down Fannie and Freddie, based on current rates and a $200,000 loan, will cost the agency borrower about $11 per month. “These institutions, which have been so costly to Americans and are so necessary to the housing recovery, should not be the piggy bank for future arbitrary tax policy,” Dave Stevens (MBA) said. Due to their government ownership, investors still view their (and FHA/VA) MBS’s as safer investments than those offered by private firms. The law allows FHFA to phase in the fee over two years.
So, if you were lucky enough to close your home loan before 12/30/2011 Congratulations!
*As always seek a qualified CPA who can further assist you.* This is not to be construed as tax advice, informational purposes only!
We are hoping that the House of Representatives will continue to extend this tax credit to home buyers, as this is a benefit when you purchase a home and have less than 20% down payment. Make sure you contact your local Representative, Congressman, Senator, or local delgate. We need to extend this tax credit / deduction! As this will only help our real estate markets
Should you have any questions please contact me.